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Prediction for CME (2023-12-16T01:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-12-16T01:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/28221/-1
CME Note: Weak signatures detected in solar wind at L1 indicate possible arrival. | Very faint CME seen in the south of SOHO LASCO C2/C3. It is not clearly visible in STEREO A COR2 due to the faintness. The leading edge is primarily seen towards the S/SW, and is best seen in SOHO LASCO C2. The potential source is a filament eruption starting around 2023-12-15T20:48Z in SDO AIA 304 that is also visible as dimming in SDO AIA and brightening loops in SDO AIA 94 around 2023-12-15T21:05Z. This eruption is also visible in STEREO A EUV 195/304.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-12-20T00:26Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-12-20T15:12Z (-11.6h, +8.1h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 46.0%
Prediction Method: HUXt
Prediction Method Note:

Ambient background file: wsa_gong_2023121906.fits
 Cone CME file: cone_cme_2023121906.in
 Cone CME parameters:
 t_launch=2023-12-14T21:11, v=974 km / s, longitude=44 deg, latitude=-17 deg, width=100 deg, initial_height=21.5 solRad, thickness=5.0 solRad
 t_launch=2023-12-15T01:21, v=308 km / s, longitude=26 deg, latitude=13 deg, width=58 deg, initial_height=21.5 solRad, thickness=5.0 solRad
 t_launch=2023-12-15T11:04, v=1200 km / s, longitude=60 deg, latitude=-23 deg, width=74 deg, initial_height=21.5 solRad, thickness=5.0 solRad
 t_launch=2023-12-15T16:52, v=400 km / s, longitude=275 deg, latitude= 2 deg, width=74 deg, initial_height=21.5 solRad, thickness=5.0 solRad
 t_launch=2023-12-16T09:06, v=341 km / s, longitude= 0 deg, latitude=-20 deg, width=40 deg, initial_height=21.5 solRad, thickness=5.0 solRad
 t_launch=2023-12-16T11:14, v=634 km / s, longitude=295 deg, latitude=-6 deg, width=76 deg, initial_height=21.5 solRad, thickness=5.0 solRad
 t_launch=2023-12-17T01:57, v=346 km / s, longitude=80 deg, latitude=-10 deg, width=38 deg, initial_height=21.5 solRad, thickness=5.0 solRad
 t_launch=2023-12-17T10:18, v=550 km / s, longitude=235 deg, latitude= 5 deg, width=46 deg, initial_height=21.5 solRad, thickness=5.0 solRad
 t_launch=2023-12-18T06:27, v=289 km / s, longitude=310 deg, latitude=28 deg, width=64 deg, initial_height=21.5 solRad, thickness=5.0 solRad
 t_launch=2023-12-18T22:01, v=367 km / s, longitude=92 deg, latitude=-1 deg, width=50 deg, initial_height=21.5 solRad, thickness=5.0 solRad
 Number of ambient ensemble members: 100
 Number of CME ensemble members: 500

Lead Time: 13.35 hour(s)
Difference: -14.77 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Luke Barnard (UoR) on 2023-12-19T11:05Z

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